Yankees, Red Sox Fans Hurting Themselves with All-Star Votes

Everyone knows Major League Baseball’s annual All-Star vote is a popularity contest.

People don’t vote for the most deserving names on the ballot—they punch in for their favorite players or the stars they recognize. As a result, the starting lineups for the Midsummer Classic say more about the fans and media than the accomplishments of the players.

As is to be expected, it’s usually the biggest-market teams who dominate the voting—the Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers have had some of the most inflated vote totals over the last couple years in the AL, while the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals get some of the most blind ballots in the NL. And, of course, there’s the most evil recognizable sports franchise in the universe: the New York Yankees.

Looking at the latest voting updates, this season’s balloting looks just as screwed up as (if not more than) usual. Current projected starters Lance Berkman, Troy Tulowitzki, Brandon Phillips, and Russell Martin would be good (or at least defensible) choices for reserve spots, but they’re definitely not the best at their positions. And a number of voting leaders—Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols—are completely undeserving of All-Star appearances. And that’s just among the No. 1 vote-getters at each position.

Moving down the lists in the AL, Mark Teixeira is somehow ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Mitch Moreland is inexplicably beating Adam Lind. Orlando Cabrera has more votes than Ben Zobrist and Howie Kendrick. Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, and Nick Swisher, who have combined for 1.7 WAR, are among the Top 8 outfielders. And Jorge Posada, the DH with an 88 wRC+, is in third place.

Things are just as bad in the NL. Ryan Howard has nearly 1.5 million votes even though, at 1.1 WAR, he’s been roughly a league-average player. Dan Uggla is hitting .178 and has topped a million votes, while Chase Utley is nearing 2 million despite having missed nearly two months of the season. And Yuniesky Betancourt has been well below replacement value (-0.6 WAR) at least 860,163 people say he’s better than Jose Reyes.

I realize there’s no way All-Star voting can ever be objective. I understand and appreciate homerism—I’m guilty of it myself. But the striking thing is that these results betray the voters’ complete unawareness of the consequences of their actions—the fans who are affected most by the outcome of the Midsummer Classic are the ones who are putting the least thought into their selections. (more…)

Putting the Cleveland Indians’ Hot Start in a Historical Perspective

The biggest story in baseball this year has been the Cleveland Indians. Even after dropping two of three in Anaheim this weekend, Cleveland (22-11) has the best record in the American League and is off to one of the best starts in club history.

After the Indians took two of three from the Oakland Athletics last week, they stood at 21-9, for an even .700 winning percentage after 30 games. Arbitrary though the distinction may seem, it’s a prestigious one. Before the Indians and Philadelphia Phillies achieved it this season, only seven teams had won at least 21 of their first 30 since 2004.

There’s no telling how long Cleveland’s improbable hot streak will last, but looking at some of the Indians’ predecessors could give us an idea of what we should expect for the rest of the season. Since MLB expanded to 30 teams in 1998, 20 teams have gone .700 or better after their first 30 games. That’s 20 clubs who were at least as impressive to start the season (if less improbably so).

It’s quite a favorable comparison for the Indians. (more…)

Catcher and the Cy: Why Carlos Ruiz Doesn’t Deserve Roy Halladay’s Cy Young Award

For those of you who missed the news yesterday, Philadelphia Phillies ace Roy Halladay presented catcher Carlos Ruiz with a replica of his 2010 NL Cy Young award. It was touching, it was generous, and it was a great story.

But it doesn’t make any sense.

Yes, Halladay pitched better when Ruiz was behind the plate. But in this case, correlation does not imply causation.

Study after study has concluded that catchers have no statistically significant impacts on pitchers’ performances on a year-to-year basis. If you or I squatted behind the plate, we’d be decidedly worse at calling and framing pitches, but the variance in that appears to be negligible among backstops who are good enough to make the bigs appears to be minimal.

A significant difference in performance like this—Halladay had a 2.13 ERA with Ruiz, but a 3.75 ERA with other catchers—is almost certainly due to luck or small sample size. Perhaps the discrepancy could be partially explained by Doc’s feeling more comfortable with Ruiz behind the plate, because that’s what he’s used to. That makes sense.

But in that case, Ruiz’ advantage isn’t superior catching ability but merely familiarity with his team’s ace—not a real reason for him to be given baseball’s highest pitching honor.

Halladay’s gesture is a great, heartwarming story, and it shows how great a guy he is—no wonder he’s one of the most marketable players in baseball. But if you’re looking for reasons to praise Ruiz, look to his 4.1 WAR instead of his 3.33 CERA.

Want to have Wahoo Blues updates sent directly to your news feed? Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter!

Ruben Amaro Jr. Says Boston Red Sox Are Better Than Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. doesn’t think his team is the best in baseball.

A guest in the broadcast booth in the eighth inning of the Phillies game Monday afternoon on ESPN, Amaro volunteered his opinion that the Boston Red Sox were the team to beat in 2011.

“I think they’re the best team in baseball,” Amaro said as he watched Phillies beat the Red Sox, 4-1. He also acknowledged that he himself is not as good as Boston GM Theo Epstein.

General consensus is that the Red Sox and Phillies are the two best teams in baseball. Perhaps he was just being modest, but if Amaro doesn’t think his team is number one, why should anyone else?

Watch Out, Doc: Roy Halladay and the Curse of xFIP

Any discussion of Roy Halladay’s chances to repeat as the NL Cy Young in 2011 has to involve Doc’s ML-best 2.92 xFIP. As we know, xFIP is a much better predictor of future ERA than is past ERA (not that his 2.44 ERA should have us concerned), and Halladay’s was the best in baseball. So his road’s all clear, right?

Not so fast.

I don’t believe in jinxes or hexes, but I noticed an interesting pattern that Halladay should be weary of: baseball’s leaders in xFIP seem to be under some sort of curse. Four of Halladay’s five most recent predecessors either collapsed or suffered major injuries shortly after posting their league-best xFIPs. Here’s a look at their fates:

(more…)

Next Page »