Indians Promote Top Prospect: How Good Will Jason Kipnis Be?
Big news out of Cleveland on Thursday as Indians promoted their third infield prospect of the season: second baseman Jason Kipnis.
Kipnis, 24, isn’t quite as high-profile a prospect as Lonnie Chisenhall was, but he’s up there for sure. In the 2011 edition of their annual pre-season Top 100 list, Baseball America ranked Kipnis the organization’s third-best prospect (after Chisenhall and Alex White) and the 54th-best prospect in the game. He moved up to No. 31 on BA‘s midseason list, released earlier this month.
Looking at how Kipnis has been demolishing Triple-A pitching, there’s reason to be excited about him joining the Tribe’s lineup. In 90 games this year, he’s hitting .281/.363/.485 with 12 homers, 54 RBI, and 64 runs scored. He’s shown impressive plate discipline (10.9% walk rate), speed (12 steals in 13 attempts) and pop (.726 Power Factor).
So how will he fare in the major leagues? (more…)
2011 MLB All-Star Vote: How to Stack the Deck for an NL Victory
Yesterday, I offered fans of American League teams a self-serving, unsportsmanlike approach to the MLB All-Star vote: in order to help ensure that their favorite clubs receive home-field advantage, AL fans are incentivized to pick the worst NL players with a chance to make a difference in the voting leaderboards.
Today, Senior Circuit fans can get their revenge.
If Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants fans want home-field advantage in case their teams make the Fall Classic, here’s who they should be casting their ballots for in the voting’s final day-and-a-half.
Catcher: Russell Martin, Yankees (first place, 2,779,592 votes). Martin (.229/.333/.393, 108 wRC+, 1.6 WAR) has roughly 400,000 votes on second-place Alex Avila (.303/.373/.541, 149 wRC+, 2.6 WAR). Avila has been much better, and he’s in striking distance of a starting job. Surely NL pitchers would rather face Martin.
First Base: Mitch Moreland, Rangers (fourth, 1,209,258). The top three vote-getters at first are pretty well set, but less than 300,000 ballots separate Moreland (.289/.352/.485, 128 wRC+, 1.0 WAR) from fifth-place Paul Konerko (.318/.389/.578, 159 wRC+, 2.3 WAR). A strong fourth-place finish could give manager Ron Washington the cover he needs to add the undeserving Moreland to the AL roster.
Second Base: Orlando Cabrera, Indians (fourth, 1,127,840). How Cabrera (.247/.278/.339, -6.8 UZR, -0.4 WAR) is ahead of Ben Zobrist (.268/.347/.475, 9.7 UZR, 4.0 WAR) and Howie Kendrick (.304/.362/.479, 10.1 UZR, 3.6 WAR) is beyond me. But if O-Cab can maintain his 160,000-vote lead over the far superior Zobrist, it could make naming him to the team a hard decision to support.
Third Base: Chone Figgins, Mariners (n/a). The hot corner is pretty much set, and the contenders are all worthy. So why not just try to get the worst player in the leaegue, Chone Figgins (.186/.232/.249, 31 wRC+, -1.2 WAR) enough votes to get on the Top 5 list?
Shortstop: Derek Jeter, Yankees (3,392,128). Asdrubal Cabrera (.292/.342/.495, 139 wRC+, 3.0 WAR) has been way better than Jeter (.260/.324/.324, 83 wRC+, 0.5 WAR). NL fans, can you really let Droobs close the 500,000-vote gap? The Senior Circuit could very well win on a blooper “pastadiving Jeter.”
Designated Hitter: Jorge Posada, Yankees (third, 1,453,385). The DH who can’t hit, Posada (.234/.324/.409, 99 wRC+, -0.1 WAR) has 200,000 votes on Victor Martinez (.335/.384/.494, 140 wRC+, 1.8 WAR) and 400,000 on Michael Young (.322/.357/.478, 126 wRC+, 1.6 WAR). I suppose it doesn’t much matter with the game in an NL park, but still: Posada an All-Star?
Outfield: Josh Hamilton, Rangers (third, 3,173,000); Carl Crawford, Red Sox (fifth, 2,294,337); Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners (seventh, 1,912,062). There’s a real battle for a starting job here between Hamilton (.297/.354/.529, -1.2 UZR, 1.4 WAR) and Jacoby Ellsbury (.299/.361/.455, 25 steals, 5.8 UZR, 3.5 WAR). Red Sox Nation could give Ellsbury the surge he needs to make up the 122,000-vote deficit—NL fans, can you live with that?
The other two, Crawford (.243/.275/.384, 76 wRC+, 0.0 WAR) and Suzuki (.276/.322/.336, 89 wRC+, 0.0 WAR) are big names who have been replacement-level players this year. Neither has a chance at cracking the starting three, but their popularity combined with strong finishes in the voting (Crawford has just under a 400,000-vote margin, while Suzuki is only 721 votes away from sixth place) could net them reserve spots on the team.
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Yankees, Red Sox Fans Hurting Themselves with All-Star Votes
Everyone knows Major League Baseball’s annual All-Star vote is a popularity contest.
People don’t vote for the most deserving names on the ballot—they punch in for their favorite players or the stars they recognize. As a result, the starting lineups for the Midsummer Classic say more about the fans and media than the accomplishments of the players.
As is to be expected, it’s usually the biggest-market teams who dominate the voting—the Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers have had some of the most inflated vote totals over the last couple years in the AL, while the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals get some of the most blind ballots in the NL. And, of course, there’s the most evil recognizable sports franchise in the universe: the New York Yankees.
Looking at the latest voting updates, this season’s balloting looks just as screwed up as (if not more than) usual. Current projected starters Lance Berkman, Troy Tulowitzki, Brandon Phillips, and Russell Martin would be good (or at least defensible) choices for reserve spots, but they’re definitely not the best at their positions. And a number of voting leaders—Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols—are completely undeserving of All-Star appearances. And that’s just among the No. 1 vote-getters at each position.
Moving down the lists in the AL, Mark Teixeira is somehow ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Mitch Moreland is inexplicably beating Adam Lind. Orlando Cabrera has more votes than Ben Zobrist and Howie Kendrick. Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, and Nick Swisher, who have combined for 1.7 WAR, are among the Top 8 outfielders. And Jorge Posada, the DH with an 88 wRC+, is in third place.
Things are just as bad in the NL. Ryan Howard has nearly 1.5 million votes even though, at 1.1 WAR, he’s been roughly a league-average player. Dan Uggla is hitting .178 and has topped a million votes, while Chase Utley is nearing 2 million despite having missed nearly two months of the season. And Yuniesky Betancourt has been well below replacement value (-0.6 WAR) at least 860,163 people say he’s better than Jose Reyes.
I realize there’s no way All-Star voting can ever be objective. I understand and appreciate homerism—I’m guilty of it myself. But the striking thing is that these results betray the voters’ complete unawareness of the consequences of their actions—the fans who are affected most by the outcome of the Midsummer Classic are the ones who are putting the least thought into their selections. (more…)
Cord Phelps Hits Walk-Off Home Run: Why is Orlando Cabrera Still Indians’ Second Baseman?
When the Cleveland Indians called second baseman Cord Phelps up from the minors two weeks ago, the team looked a lot better—not because Phelps was a favorite for Rookie of the Year, but because he would be replacing Orlando Cabrera in the Tribe’s lineup.
Great as Cabrera has been for clubhouse chemistry off the field, he hasn’t been playing very well on it. Through 63 games, he’s hitting .248 with a .270 OBP (fourth-worst in the AL) and a .596 OPS (sixth-worst). His sabermetric numbers are just as bad—his .267 wOBA and 65 wRC+ are both among the bottom five in the league.
In addition to his combination of no power and poor plate discipline—his 2.5% walk rate is the worst in all of baseball—the converted shortstop hasn’t adjusted well to playing second base, as evidenced by his -13.8 UZR/150. Even his reputation for being clutch rings hollow when one looks at his -0.51 WPA.
At -0.6 WAR, he’s been below replacement value and has been the ninth-least valuable position player in all of baseball. He’s on pace to cost the Indians more than a win and a half over 162 games.
And yet, Sunday’s game, in which Phelps got the start and ended up coming through with a walk-off home run in the 11th inning to give the Indians a 5-2 victory, was the exception to the norm—Cabrera seems well entrenched as Cleveland’s starting second baseman. (more…)
Which Cleveland Indians Deserve Your All-Star Votes?
Less than two weeks remain before the 2011 MLB All-Star voting closes, and Cleveland fans across the country are sure to be punching their ballots for Tribe players to get as many Indians on the AL team as possible.
Believe it or not, several Indians are already among the voting leaders as of the most recent update. But before we cast our final ballots, it behooves us to ask: what Cleveland players really should appear in the Midsummer Classic.
According to yesterday’s Baseball Prospectus playoff odds update, the Indians have a 15% chance of making the playoffs, meaning they have a roughly 4% chance of reaching the World Series. That’s a real, if small, chance that the outcome of the All-Star Game and its prize of home field advantage in the Fall Classic will matter to the Indians.
With that in mind, blindly punching the ticket for the Tribe’s players might not be in the Indians’ best interest. To help you make your decisions, I’ve categorized the nine Cleveland players on the ballot by how much hometown bias it would take to justify picking them. Happy voting!
Pull the Lever
Asdrubal Cabrera, Shortstop (second, 1,647,802). He leads all AL shortstops in average (.296), slugging percentage (.507), OPS (.850), and wRC+ (142). Alexei Ramirez’ big advantage with the glove probably makes him the better player (he leads Cabrera in WAR, 3.1 to 2.4), but Droobs’ star power, presence on the most surprising team in baseball, and clutch hitting make him a solid choice. And someone’s got to stop Derek Jeter. (more…)
