Let’s Make a Deal: Cleveland Indians, Chris Perez Talking 2011 Contract
Yesterday, we learned that Cleveland Indians closer Chris Perez’ agent is talking to the Tribe about his contract for next season. Perez, 25, is eligible for arbitration for the first time this season, and both sides are presumably hoping to avoid an actual hearing. This, of course, leads us to the million (or more!) dollar question: how much would it take to sign him?
MLB Trade Rumors: New York Yankees a Fit for Travis Hafner?
Last week, after we learned that the Cleveland Indians were looking to trade Travis Hafner, I suggested the Washington Nationals could be a potential fit. Given that Hafner’s shoulder problems impair his ability to play the field, the idea was admittedly a bit of a stretch even before the Nats signed Adam LaRoche.
But, as promised, I will continue to offer my matchmaking services until a move is made or I run out of ideas. And so, I present my next potential partner for pawning Pronk: the New York Yankees.
After last year’s Nick Johnson signing didn’t work out and the Yankees had to give a plurality of DH starts to Marcus Thames, New York seems content to fill the lineup spot internally. As of now, Jorge Posada is the favorite to get the majority of at-bats there, as some combination of Austin Romine, Jesus Montero, Francisco Cervelli, and Russell Martin will take over behind the plate.
The Unsung Dominance of Chris Perez
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In last Monday’s “Stat of the Week” post, we highlighted Mitch Talbot’s fluky early-season BABIP to explain how he went from Rookie of the Year candidate to forgettable back-end starter in the span of a few weeks.
But this week is about giving thanks, not reveling in misery. So today, we’ll look at a player who did the opposite thing in 2010: Chris Perez.
Perez was unexpectedly thrust into the closer’s role at the beginning of the year when Kerry Wood started the season on the disabled list. He didn’t make a very good first impression; in his first four outings, he took a loss, blew a save, posted a 1:5 K:BB ratio (no, that’s not backwards), and earned a 9.00 ERA in three innings.
But if you stopped following the story there—as many did—you missed the part where Perez became one of the best relievers in baseball.
From the day Wood came back (May 8th) to the day he got hurt again (July 11—he was traded to the Yankees before he returned from the DL), Perez posted a 2.52 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a .193 BAA. But he didn’t stop there; after the All-Star Break, Perez posted a clean 0.63 ERA in 28.2 innings, converting 16 of 17 save opportunities.
It gets better. From August 7 on—his last 17 games, a total of 18.2 innings—he didn’t allow a single run. His K:BB ratio shot up to 21:6. He held batters to a miniscule .088 BAA and an insanely low .275 OPS. Did I mention his perfect 0.00 ERA?
That’s all well and good, but can that really make up for his poor stuff? The answer is yes. Yes, it can.
All told, Perez finished with a 1.71 ERA—good for second in the league among pitchers with at least 50 innings, behind only Joaquin Benoit, who was just rewarded for his fantastic season with a $16.5-million contract.
According to Baseball-Reference’s formula, Perez was worth 2.7 Wins Above Replacement, making him the most valuable pitcher on the team (second-place Fausto Carmona was worth just 1.9). Overall, he was the third-most valuable Indian, behind only Shin-Soo Choo’s insane 7.3 WAR and Travis Hafner’s 2.6.
Of course, there’s reason to believe his success isn’t fully sustainable; he was aided by a .236 Batting Average on Balls in Play (for an explanation, read the Talbot post) and a 5.5% HR/FB rate.
But should we be that alarmed? The HR/FB rate is likely to return to normal levels, which could spell trouble considering his fly-ball tendencies (45.2% career FB rate). But the BABIP could remain low, if not to this extent—Perez’s career mark is .256, and good there’s a precedent for good relievers having low BABIPs (Mariano Rivera, Joaquim Soria, Billy Wagner, and Trevor Hoffman all have career marks under .280, just to name a few). Plus, at age 25, he may develop into an even better pitcher, so he’ll be able to overcome a reversal of fortune.
Bottom line: Chris Perez is one of the best closers in the game. There’s a reason the Indians don’t have to worry about a fireman this winter.
Postpartum Success in (October)
First of all, I’d like to thank you for not immediately closing this page because of the title of this post. If you got it, thank you for not recoiling from the horrible pun. If you’re scratching your head and thinking I’m a lunatic for throwing those random words together—well, that’s probably for the best. But I digress.
The Giants’ victory over the Rangers last night signaled the end of the 2010 MLB season. Baseball fans were treated to a fantastic postseason full of great pitching, a humiliated Yankees team, and more great pitching.
For Indians fans, though, the season was over a month ago (if not back in April). But while there was no playoff baseball at the Prog this year, many familiar faces—by my count, 11—made impacts in the postseason. Here they are:
Remember that guy we traded to the Phillies last year? Of course, I’m talking about Ben Francisco. Francisco pinch-hit thrice in the NLDS and NLCS, and started NLCS Game 4. He went 1-for-6 with a walk.
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And who was the guy we traded with Francisco? Oh yeah…Cliff Lee. Lee absolutely dominated the Rays and Yankees in his first three starts of the postseason, going 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA in 24 innings and posting a jaw-dropping 34:1 K:BB ratio. He struggled in the World Series, though, going 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA against the Giants.
Leading the helm for the Phillies was former Tribe manager Charlie Manuel, who looked just as old and grumpy when he threw me soft toss at an Indians Fun Day 11 years ago as he does now.
You don’t remember Guillermo Mota‘s stint with the Indians? You probably blocked it out of your memory—he posted a 6.21 ERA in 37.2 innings with the Tribe in 2006. Mota held the Rangers scoreless in 2.1 World Series innings.
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The Indians dealt Carl Pavano to the Twins last August after he posted a 5.37 ERA in 21 starts. This October, he started ALDS Game 2, taking the loss and giving up four runs in six innings against the Yankees.
It’s hard to blame Mark Shapiro for dealing Brandon Phillips; in parts of four seasons with the Tribe, he hit .204/.246/.310, losing his top-prospect status along the way. How could anyone have known he would emerge as one of the best second basemen in the game? Phillips went 4-for-12 with a solo homer in the NLDS.
Another one of the interchangeable relievers you may have forgotten the Indians had, Arthur Rhodes posted a 2.08 ERA as a lefty specialist out of Cleveland’s bullpen in 2005. He faced two batters in NLDS Game 2, striking out Raul Ibanez before beaning Carlos Ruiz.
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CC Sabathia‘s performance last October persuaded Yankees fans that he is a good clutch pitcher—but we knew better. He showed his true colors this time around, posting a 5.63 ERA in three games.
After being traded to the Rays in the offseason, Kelly Shoppach rewarded his new employers with a .196 average and a .650 OPS. He started behind the plate for three games in the ALDS and went 0-for-9 with a walk.
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After struggling to find gainful employment this winter, Jim Thome got a part-time DH job with the Twins and made the best of it, posting an insane 1.039 OPS, his best since he left Cleveland. He went 1-for-10 with three walks in the ALDS.
Kerry Wood posted deceptively dominant numbers for the Yankees after being dealt at this year’s Trade Deadline. A .235 BABIP, 4.0% HR/FB rate, and a ludicrous 98.1% strand rate explain the discrepancy between his 0.69 ERA in the Bronx with his 4.20 xFIP. He threw eight innings in seven postseason games, posting a 2.25 ERA.
Kerry Wood to the Yankees a done deal
Jayson Stark is reporting via Twitter that a deal between the Indians and Yankees for Kerry Wood is complete and the reliever will be in pinstripes soon.
This is the second deal between the two teams today, the first being outfielder Austin Kearns headed to the big apple for a player to be named later.
Stark has reported the deal will send the Indians either a player to be named later or cash. He went on to detail the financial details, saying: “Cash in Wood deal depends on Wood’s health. If he breaks down, Yankees pay $1.5M of salary. If stays healthy, another $200,000.”
The deal will be finished by October 15, according to the Indians.
