2011 MLB All-Star Game: How Great Would AL All-Stars Be in Single-A?
As you may have heard, tonight is the 2011 MLB All-Star Game. Sure, it’s an exhibition game, but it’s a night of glamour and excitement, of marquee names and star-studded lineups, and home-field advantage in the World Series is on the line.
Even if no one’s playing at 100 percent—sure, you’re on national TV, but no one’s going to risk getting injured in a game that doesn’t count—the competition is better than in any other game. I’d hate to face Jered Weaver even in batting practice.
So as the All-Star hitters prepare to suit up against the best pitchers in the game, I started to wonder: how well would they do against some of the worst arms in professional baseball?
Using Jeff Sackmann’s Minor League Equivalency calculator, we can find out.
I found MLE numbers for each of the 23 position players on the AL All-Star team (NL to come tomorrow)—starters, reserves, and sit-outs—as they would look if, in a Rachel Phelpsian scheme, they were all suddenly demoted to Single-A. I then projected their counting stats over a full 139-game season.
Here’s how the All-Star starters’ numbers would look over a full season in the lower minors:
click to embiggen
What Should Indians Expect in Rematch with Yankees?
Today is the United States of America’s 235th birthday, and all over the country people are celebrating with barbecues, picnics, and fireworks. But for the Cleveland Indians on this Independence Day, the Yankees are the enemy.
The Tribe lost three of four in the Bronx last month, and now New York is back for more—the Indians and Yankees kick off a three-game series at Progressive Field tonight.
To get an expert’s perspective on the Indians’ holiday guests, I talked to BronxBombersReport.com‘s Craig Williams about New York’s approach to the trade deadline, the team’s clubhouse chemistry, and the Yankees’ overrepresentation in the All-Star starting lineup. Here’s what he had to say:
WAHOO BLUES: Just after the halfway point in the season, the Yankees are in first place in the AL East, but the Red Sox are just 1.5 games behind and the Rays are only four games out. How do you see the division shaking out?
CRAIG WILLIAMS: I still see the Yankees making the playoffs – barring unforeseen injuries and the like. On paper, the Red Sox might be ever so slightly better than the Yanks, but New York still has their top prospect in the minors and the resources to address needs at the trade deadlines. I don’t know if they’ll win the division or settle on the wild card, but I think they can land one of those two playoff spots.
WB: There’s been a lot of talk about chemistry in the New York clubhouse—Posada’s unhappiness with being demoted in the lineup, Jeter’s struggles, and A-Rod’s everpresent ego have all had people worrying. Is this overblown or is it a real problem? (more…)
MLB All-Star Teams Revealed: Derek Jeter over Asdrubal Cabrera is Completely Indefensible
At 12:04 p.m. on Sunday, it was announced that New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter was the fans’ choice to be the American League’s starter in the 2011 All-Star Game next week.
We voters have made a huge mistake.
It wasn’t much of a surprise. Jeter had amassed a more-than-500,000-vote lead over second-place finisher Asdrubal Cabrera as of two days before the voting ended, and he’s far too popular a player to lose a lead like that in under 72 hours. Cabrera still made the team, but that doesn’t make picking Jeter as the starter any less wrong.
Cabrera wasn’t the unanimous top pick at shortstop. Jhonny Peralta is off to a torrid start and Alexei Ramirez is quietly putting on a show in Chicago. Heck, Yunel Escobar’s having himself a nice season for the Blue Jays.
But Jeter? To everyone who voted for the Yankees’ captain, I ask with all due respect: are you crazy?
To illustrate the objective inexplicability of the voters’ choice, I’ve listed Jeter and Cabrera’s statistics in more than 30 categories—traditional and sabermetric, popular and esoteric, meaningful and trivial—so you can see for yourself: (more…)
2011 MLB All-Star Vote: How to Stack the Deck for an NL Victory
Yesterday, I offered fans of American League teams a self-serving, unsportsmanlike approach to the MLB All-Star vote: in order to help ensure that their favorite clubs receive home-field advantage, AL fans are incentivized to pick the worst NL players with a chance to make a difference in the voting leaderboards.
Today, Senior Circuit fans can get their revenge.
If Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants fans want home-field advantage in case their teams make the Fall Classic, here’s who they should be casting their ballots for in the voting’s final day-and-a-half.
Catcher: Russell Martin, Yankees (first place, 2,779,592 votes). Martin (.229/.333/.393, 108 wRC+, 1.6 WAR) has roughly 400,000 votes on second-place Alex Avila (.303/.373/.541, 149 wRC+, 2.6 WAR). Avila has been much better, and he’s in striking distance of a starting job. Surely NL pitchers would rather face Martin.
First Base: Mitch Moreland, Rangers (fourth, 1,209,258). The top three vote-getters at first are pretty well set, but less than 300,000 ballots separate Moreland (.289/.352/.485, 128 wRC+, 1.0 WAR) from fifth-place Paul Konerko (.318/.389/.578, 159 wRC+, 2.3 WAR). A strong fourth-place finish could give manager Ron Washington the cover he needs to add the undeserving Moreland to the AL roster.
Second Base: Orlando Cabrera, Indians (fourth, 1,127,840). How Cabrera (.247/.278/.339, -6.8 UZR, -0.4 WAR) is ahead of Ben Zobrist (.268/.347/.475, 9.7 UZR, 4.0 WAR) and Howie Kendrick (.304/.362/.479, 10.1 UZR, 3.6 WAR) is beyond me. But if O-Cab can maintain his 160,000-vote lead over the far superior Zobrist, it could make naming him to the team a hard decision to support.
Third Base: Chone Figgins, Mariners (n/a). The hot corner is pretty much set, and the contenders are all worthy. So why not just try to get the worst player in the leaegue, Chone Figgins (.186/.232/.249, 31 wRC+, -1.2 WAR) enough votes to get on the Top 5 list?
Shortstop: Derek Jeter, Yankees (3,392,128). Asdrubal Cabrera (.292/.342/.495, 139 wRC+, 3.0 WAR) has been way better than Jeter (.260/.324/.324, 83 wRC+, 0.5 WAR). NL fans, can you really let Droobs close the 500,000-vote gap? The Senior Circuit could very well win on a blooper “pastadiving Jeter.”
Designated Hitter: Jorge Posada, Yankees (third, 1,453,385). The DH who can’t hit, Posada (.234/.324/.409, 99 wRC+, -0.1 WAR) has 200,000 votes on Victor Martinez (.335/.384/.494, 140 wRC+, 1.8 WAR) and 400,000 on Michael Young (.322/.357/.478, 126 wRC+, 1.6 WAR). I suppose it doesn’t much matter with the game in an NL park, but still: Posada an All-Star?
Outfield: Josh Hamilton, Rangers (third, 3,173,000); Carl Crawford, Red Sox (fifth, 2,294,337); Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners (seventh, 1,912,062). There’s a real battle for a starting job here between Hamilton (.297/.354/.529, -1.2 UZR, 1.4 WAR) and Jacoby Ellsbury (.299/.361/.455, 25 steals, 5.8 UZR, 3.5 WAR). Red Sox Nation could give Ellsbury the surge he needs to make up the 122,000-vote deficit—NL fans, can you live with that?
The other two, Crawford (.243/.275/.384, 76 wRC+, 0.0 WAR) and Suzuki (.276/.322/.336, 89 wRC+, 0.0 WAR) are big names who have been replacement-level players this year. Neither has a chance at cracking the starting three, but their popularity combined with strong finishes in the voting (Crawford has just under a 400,000-vote margin, while Suzuki is only 721 votes away from sixth place) could net them reserve spots on the team.
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Yankees, Red Sox Fans Hurting Themselves with All-Star Votes
Everyone knows Major League Baseball’s annual All-Star vote is a popularity contest.
People don’t vote for the most deserving names on the ballot—they punch in for their favorite players or the stars they recognize. As a result, the starting lineups for the Midsummer Classic say more about the fans and media than the accomplishments of the players.
As is to be expected, it’s usually the biggest-market teams who dominate the voting—the Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers have had some of the most inflated vote totals over the last couple years in the AL, while the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals get some of the most blind ballots in the NL. And, of course, there’s the most evil recognizable sports franchise in the universe: the New York Yankees.
Looking at the latest voting updates, this season’s balloting looks just as screwed up as (if not more than) usual. Current projected starters Lance Berkman, Troy Tulowitzki, Brandon Phillips, and Russell Martin would be good (or at least defensible) choices for reserve spots, but they’re definitely not the best at their positions. And a number of voting leaders—Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols—are completely undeserving of All-Star appearances. And that’s just among the No. 1 vote-getters at each position.
Moving down the lists in the AL, Mark Teixeira is somehow ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Mitch Moreland is inexplicably beating Adam Lind. Orlando Cabrera has more votes than Ben Zobrist and Howie Kendrick. Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, and Nick Swisher, who have combined for 1.7 WAR, are among the Top 8 outfielders. And Jorge Posada, the DH with an 88 wRC+, is in third place.
Things are just as bad in the NL. Ryan Howard has nearly 1.5 million votes even though, at 1.1 WAR, he’s been roughly a league-average player. Dan Uggla is hitting .178 and has topped a million votes, while Chase Utley is nearing 2 million despite having missed nearly two months of the season. And Yuniesky Betancourt has been well below replacement value (-0.6 WAR) at least 860,163 people say he’s better than Jose Reyes.
I realize there’s no way All-Star voting can ever be objective. I understand and appreciate homerism—I’m guilty of it myself. But the striking thing is that these results betray the voters’ complete unawareness of the consequences of their actions—the fans who are affected most by the outcome of the Midsummer Classic are the ones who are putting the least thought into their selections. (more…)
