What Should Indians Expect From Reds in Battle of Ohio Rematch?

When the Cincinnati Reds came to visit in May, the Indians’ hot start was nearing its zenith. Cleveland swept the Reds in that three-game set, outscoring them 19-9. By the end of the series, the Tribe had a 29-15 record and a seven-game lead over the then-second-place Detroit Tigers.

This weekend, the Indians will wrap up their interleague play for the season (and this long road trip) exactly as they started it with a Battle of Ohio. But unlike last time, when they take the field tonight, they won’t have home-field advantage.

To get a better idea of who the Tribe’s weekend hosts are, I talked to RedReporter.com‘s Justin Inaz about Cincinnati’s approach to the Trade Deadline, Joey Votto’s Cooperstown credentials, and who will take the mound against the Indians at Great American Ballpark this weekend. Here’s what he had to say:

Read my answers to Justin’s questions about Asdrubal Cabrera’s power surge, the Indians’ love of ground-ball pitchers, and Manny Acta’s sabermetric credentials on RedReporter.com.

WAHOO BLUES: The top of the NL Central is really crowded, with the Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, and Pirates (?) all less than three games apart. How do you see the division shaking out?

JUSTIN INAZ: Right now I see the Brewers as the team to beat.  And that’s not just because they’re in first: they have a very good offense, an amazing starting rotation, and a good bullpen.  The only thing they don’t do well is catch the ball…which might be why they haven’t run away with it.  The Cardinals would be a similar team, but they’ve suffered so many big injuries that I don’t know if they can keep with the Brewers.  The Pirates…well, it’s hard to knock them too much as they’re right there with the Reds, but their offense is not good and their rotation has probably overperformed.  I think finishing above .500 is a more realisitic goal for them than trying to win the division.

I see the Reds slotting in right behind the Brewers right now.  If the Reds can finally see a few guys (Bailey? Volquez?) step forward to get their rotation going, or make a deal to bring in a quality pitcher or two, they have good enough hitting and fantastic enough fielding to get them back over the top.  They’re definitely still in it, and my gut says that they’re getting ready to make a run at it.  My head’s not so sure, but it hopes my gut is right.

WB: As we enter the month of non-stop trade rumors, what kind of players (if any) will the Reds be looking to add? Are there any specific players you’d like them to target? (more…)

Yankees, Red Sox Fans Hurting Themselves with All-Star Votes

Everyone knows Major League Baseball’s annual All-Star vote is a popularity contest.

People don’t vote for the most deserving names on the ballot—they punch in for their favorite players or the stars they recognize. As a result, the starting lineups for the Midsummer Classic say more about the fans and media than the accomplishments of the players.

As is to be expected, it’s usually the biggest-market teams who dominate the voting—the Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers have had some of the most inflated vote totals over the last couple years in the AL, while the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals get some of the most blind ballots in the NL. And, of course, there’s the most evil recognizable sports franchise in the universe: the New York Yankees.

Looking at the latest voting updates, this season’s balloting looks just as screwed up as (if not more than) usual. Current projected starters Lance Berkman, Troy Tulowitzki, Brandon Phillips, and Russell Martin would be good (or at least defensible) choices for reserve spots, but they’re definitely not the best at their positions. And a number of voting leaders—Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols—are completely undeserving of All-Star appearances. And that’s just among the No. 1 vote-getters at each position.

Moving down the lists in the AL, Mark Teixeira is somehow ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Mitch Moreland is inexplicably beating Adam Lind. Orlando Cabrera has more votes than Ben Zobrist and Howie Kendrick. Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, and Nick Swisher, who have combined for 1.7 WAR, are among the Top 8 outfielders. And Jorge Posada, the DH with an 88 wRC+, is in third place.

Things are just as bad in the NL. Ryan Howard has nearly 1.5 million votes even though, at 1.1 WAR, he’s been roughly a league-average player. Dan Uggla is hitting .178 and has topped a million votes, while Chase Utley is nearing 2 million despite having missed nearly two months of the season. And Yuniesky Betancourt has been well below replacement value (-0.6 WAR) at least 860,163 people say he’s better than Jose Reyes.

I realize there’s no way All-Star voting can ever be objective. I understand and appreciate homerism—I’m guilty of it myself. But the striking thing is that these results betray the voters’ complete unawareness of the consequences of their actions—the fans who are affected most by the outcome of the Midsummer Classic are the ones who are putting the least thought into their selections. (more…)

Ballpark vs. Ballpark: Comparing Great American Ballpark to Progressive Field

While the Cleveland Indians were getting slaughtered last night (et tu, Toronto?), I was deep in enemy territory—specifically, southern Ohio, home of the Tribe’s intrastate rivals, the Cincinnati Reds.

I had the pleasure of taking in a Reds game in person at Great American Ballpark, where Cincinnati beat up on the Milwaukee Brewers, 7-3. It was my first time visiting Great American, and naturally I found myself comparing GABP to my beloved Progressive Field.

Here are three ways in which Great American has the edge over Progressive Field, plus three things that the venue formerly known as “The Jake” has over Cincinnati’s ballpark. Starting with GABP’s advantages:

1. The outdoorsy atmosphere. In Cleveland, when you’re at the stadium, you’re at the stadium. You can see the skyline behind the bleachers and you can look down at the street from the top of the nosebleed seats, but you definitely don’t feel like you’re part of the outside world.

In Cincinnati, it’s completely different. Finding your way to your section, much (if not most) of the path is truly open-air. Multiple entrances to the stadium feel fully integrated into the surrounding sidewalks. Walking behind the outfield, you’re right on the Ohio River—not the most scenic body of water, but it’s a lot easier on the eyes than a row of snack stands. (more…)

Battle of Ohio: What Should Cleveland Indians Expect From Cincinnati Reds?

It’s hard to believe we’ve already seen so much baseball, but the calendar says it’s late May, and that can mean only one thing: the start of interleague play.

The Cleveland Indians’ first interleague series starts tonight, and as we’ve come to expect, they will start off with a battle for state supremacy with the Cincinnati Reds. After shocking the league to win the NL Central last year, the Reds were widely dismissed as flukes coming into the 2011 season, but a quick look at the standings shows that that’s not the case.

To get some perspective on the Tribe’s opponents, I talked to Christopher Juergens of RedsSpot.com about Jay Bruce’s potential, the merits of interleague play, and the starting pitchers who will take the mound at Progressive Field this weekend. Here’s what he had to say:

WAHOO BLUES: A lot of people thought the Reds would finish behind the Cardinals, Brewers, or even the Cubs in the NL Central this year, yet they’re still in first place. Can they keep it up?

CHRISTOPHER JUERGENS: With the return of Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey to solidify the starting rotation, I look for a long season around top of the NL Central.

WB: As an NL fan, what are your thoughts on interleague play? Do you like getting to see your team use a DH? (more…)

Are Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, and Cincinnati Reds World Series Favorites?

There is a great danger at the beginning of each MLB season: the sweet seduction of small-sample size statistics. In the first week, Matt Garza can be the best pitcher in baseball, and in one game, J.P. Arencibia can look like the greatest player in baseball history.

So when, after four games, the Baltimore Orioles are sitting at 4-0—good for first place in the AL East, and four games ahead of the preseason favorite Boston Red Sox—the logical explanation is that any team can look like a champion in this short a time span. No rational person would suggest that one weekend of unexpected results represents a massive shift in the league’s balance of power.

But history is on their side. (more…)

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