What Should Indians Expect in Rematch with Chicago White Sox?
It’s been almost two weeks since we’ve seen baseball at Progressive Field—the last time we hosted a series was before the All-Star Break—but the action returns to Cleveland tonight as the Indians kick off a series against a somewhat familiar foe: the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox (47-51) are four games under .500, but that’s enough to put them in contention in the weak AL Central. They’re only 4.5 games behind the Indians for second place in the division and just five in back of the Tigers—no one will mistake this for the AL East.
As the Indians prepare to take revenge on their foes from the Windy City (the White Sox are up 4-1 in the season series), I talked to SouthsideShowdown.com‘s Travis Miller about Ozzie Guillen’s controversies, Alexei Ramirez’ glove, and the Chicago phenomenon known as the “Gavin inning.” Here’s what he had to say:
Read my answers to Travis’ questions about the Indians’ approach to the trade deadline, Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore’s declines, and #actaball at SouthsideShowdown.com.
WAHOO BLUES: The White Sox are definitely contenders. Do you expect them to be big buyers at the Trade Deadline? Are there any particular position or players you’ve got your eye on?
TRAVIS MILLER: While the White Sox are in contention, the “All-in” slogan is about as literal as it can get. The payroll is upwards of $125 million, more than Jerry Reinsdorf has ever invested into the team. Attendance is dwindling in the 20,000-25,000 range most nights, which means the Sox aren’t making money. General manager Kenny Williams has said it all along – there’s no money left. Any deadline improvements have to be done within. That means either sticking with the slumping duo of Alex Rios and Adam Dunn, or making a very difficult decision and benching one, if not both, in favor of Triple-A studs Alejandro De Aza (.327/.384/.508 with 21 SBs) and/or Dayan Viciedo (.311/.367/.510 with 16 HRs).
Edwin Jackson has been rumored to be available, but with someone always banged up on the pitching staff, it’s tough to sell off one of the Sox’s six starting pitchers, especially when there is literally no Major League-ready help in the minors. Jackson was acquired at the deadline last year and went 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA over 11 starts down the stretch.
Carlos Quentin’s name has also been thrown around, but with the team as starved for offense as it has been, it’s difficult to justify trading the second-most productive bat in the lineup, even if it does mean opening up a spot for Viciedo, as well as acquiring prospects. Quentin won’t be dealt until the offseason.
WAHOO BLUES: Between his controversial quotes and love of small ball, Ozzie Guillen has to be one of the most polarizing managers in baseball. What do you think about him? (more…)
Cleveland Indians’ Playoff Odds Rise to Nearly 1 in 4
Say what you want about the Cleveland Indians’ June swoon or the holes in the lineup or the fact that nothing ever goes right for Cleveland sports teams, but we’re well into the second half of the season and the Indians are in first place in the AL Central.
Not just tied for first place, or effectively tied for first place with an infinitesimally small advantage in winning percentage. If the season ended today there would be no ambiguity and no need for a tiebreaker. The Tribe would win the division.
As a result, while the Indians’ playoff odds still might not be as high as we’d like them to be, they’re at least heading in the right direction. (more…)
Cleveland Indians’ Playoff Odds Drop Below 1 in 8
The predictive power of the Cleveland Indians’ recent losing streak may be overstated, but there’s no disputing that the AL Central standings look very different now than they did three weeks ago.
On May 23, the Indians stood at 30-15—the best record in baseball—and held a seven-game lead over the second-place Detroit Tigers (35-30). Now, the Tribe’s lead has completely evaporated and Detroit is effectively tied with Cleveland for first place.
Even if projections for the Indians haven’t changed too much and their 4-14 stretch isn’t a sign of doom and gloom going forward, the loss of the Tribe’s division lead is very bad news for Cleveland’s chances of playing into October. (more…)
Cleveland Indians’ Playoff Odds Fall Below 1 in 5
In a vacuum, the Cleveland Indians’ current five-game losing streak wouldn’t be worth worrying about. Five games is far too small a sample size from which to draw any major conclusions, and in a 162-game season every team has cold stretches.
But this particular slump is problematic for the Tribe because the Indians have watched their once-intimidating division lead all but disappear before their eyes.
Two weeks ago, Cleveland had a seven-game lead in the AL Central. The discrepancy between the Indians and the Detroit Tigers was the biggest of any division leader in baseball, and larger than the entire spread of some divisions.
Now, the Tribe’s lead is down to just 1.5 games, and the improving Chicago White Sox are in striking distance (six games back). And the Indians’ chances of making the playoffs have dropped dramatically. (more…)
What Would It Take For Cleveland Indians to Blow Their Division Lead?
It was a rough road trip for the Cleveland Indians.
After losing two of three in Tampa Bay last weekend, the Tribe got throttled 11-1 in the series opener against the Blue Jays and came frighteningly close to blowing a 12-0 lead in Toronto last night. Even with the reigning AL champion Texas Rangers coming to town for a four-game series starting tonight, I’m guessing the Indians are glad to be home.
But rough as the road trip may have been, Cleveland emerged once again in possession of the best record in baseball (33-20). And though the Tribe’s lead over the second-place Detroit Tigers in the AL Central has dwindled from its peak (Detroit was seven games back on May 23), the five-game difference is still double the advantage of the next-best division leader.
With one third of the season now in the books, it seemed as good a time as any to once again test just how big of an impact the Indians’ division lead will make on the pennant race.
I calculated how many games the Tribe would win under five different circumstances, from extremely skeptical to overly optimistic. I then determined how well the Tigers (29-26, five games back), Chicago White Sox (27-31, 8.5 GB), Kansas City Royals (25-30, 9 GB) and Minnesota Twins (17-37, 16.5 GB) would have to play in order to wrest first place from the Indians.
If the Indians play .451 ball (FanGraphs’ preseason Fan Projections), they will win 82 games. In order to get to 83 wins:
- Detroit Tigers—would need a .505 winning percentage
- Chicago White Sox—.538
- Kansas City Royals—.542
- Minnesota Twins—.611 (more…)
