Do the Cleveland Indians Really Need an Innings Eater?
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Much ink has already been spilled over the Indians’ desire to import a starting pitcher this offseason. But while Cleveland reportedly wants to bring in a veteran starter, no one expects to see a new ace warming up in the Tribe’s bullpen in 2011. We don’t want a great hurler—we want an “innings eater.”
In case you’re not hip to the latest baseball lingo, an innings eater is a roughly average pitcher whose value comes solely from consistency and durability. We’re talking 150-200 innings with an ERA around 4.25, plus or minus half a run. An innings eater isn’t supposed to carry his team on his back. His job is to go out every fifth day and not screw up too badly.
But let’s forget the apparent inevitability of such a move and focus on the normative—should a team like the Indians really be going after a pitcher like that?
For the sake of argument, let’s say that there are three types of teams, herefter referred to as A, B, and C. Team A enters the season looking like a surefire contender and considers it a disappointment if they miss the playoffs; Team B isn’t expecting to see the postseason, but they have a realistic chance of making it to October if everything goes right; and Team C has raised the white flag on the season before it even starts. Think of Team A as like the Red Sox and Yankees every year, Team B as 2010′s White Sox and Mariners, and Team C as the Royals or Pirates. How would an innings eater fit into each team’s plans?
If Team A has any holes in its rotation, an innings eater would be a great addition. Why? Because if they’re already expecting to make the playoffs, they presumably have the talent to contend before filling the gap in their staff. On a good-hitting club, his job is to keep his team in the game; on a pitching-heavy team, the point is to ensure that the back of the rotation isn’t a complete disaster. The Cardinals’ signing of Jake Westbrook is a good example of the latter.
With Team B, things get a little fuzzier. For a team with an outside chance of making the playoffs, potential is more important than stability. A consistently average pitcher will probably be better than someone who has, say, a 30% chance of being an All-Star and 70% chance of busting, but if a team is in need of someone to put them over the top, playing it safe is counterintuitive. The only reason to go after an innings eater is if there are no other options whose realistic upsides are better than what you’d expect from the innings eater.
With Team C, we get to the worst case of all. If the team has nothing to play for, the only productive use of the season is to further the development of the team’s young players. Every pitch an innings eater throws is an opportunity lost for a prospect to refine his stuff in the bigs. Unless all of a team’s best pitching prospects still have major refinements to make in the minors, signing an innings eater makes no sense at all.
So what of the Indians? The 2011 Tribe probably falls somewhere between Teams B and C, so the argument that an innings eater would bring stability doesn’t hold much water.
And we don’t have a dearth of pitching. Unless they’re traded, Fausto Carmona and Mitch Talbot are virtual locks for rotation spots, and Justin Masterson will probably keep his as well. One has to assume Carlos Carrasco will get the chance to start after impressing in seven starts at the end of 2010, and Josh Tomlin should be the favorite for the fifth spot after leading Triple-A Columbus Clippers starters in ERA last year (2.68).
That means Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister, Jeanmar Gomez, and Justin Germano will be battling it out for backup duty—and that’s assuming no lower-minors prospects take the next step and there’s no resurgence from Aaron Laffey and David Huff. How will that situation be bettered by adding Vicente Padilla or Freddy Garcia?
The bottom line is, the Indians needn’t worry about eating innings. Maybe we should just wolf down some Cracker Jacks instead.
Derek Jeter Negotiations Illustrate Difference Between Indians’ Situation and Yankees’
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A Yankees fan will tell you that New York’s ability to achieve perennial success isn’t based on money. The correlation between their consistently league-leading payrolls and annual contention is but a mere coincidence. But with the news of Derek Jeter’s insane demands for a new contract, the Yankees’ situation closely parallels the Indians’, and reveals the true difference between the Bronx Bombers and other teams.
Even if Jeter isn’t being quite as unreasonable as originally reported, consnus seems to be that New York’s captain, coming off a season in which he posted a .710 OPS, will have to settle for something like four years and $76 million. Poor baby.
Even the Yankees’ original offer of three years and $45 million was overly generous; they were going to have to overpay to keep their captain, and they were just fine with that. The Bombers will undoubtedly have to pay close to $20 million a year for a 36-year-old poor defender who just had the worst offensive season of his career until after the end of the Mayan calendar.
But will that hamper GM Brian Cashman’s plans to improve the roster for 2011? Of course not! If Jeter had taken the Yankees’ initial offer, he would have brought payroll for next season up to $165 million; throw in the inevitable re-signing of Mariano Rivera and arbitration raises to Sergio Mitre, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain, and Phil Hughes, and you’ve got at least $180 million right there. Plus, the bidding for Cliff Lee might get as high as $25 million or more, and he’s surely not the only guy on Cashman’s Christmas list.
In other words, going beyond their already inflated offer to keep Jeter in pinstripes will have no effect on how the rest of the roster is put together.
Meanwhile, the now-infamous $57 million contract extension the Cleveland Indians gave Travis Hafner in 2007 is preventing the Tribe from making any major moves this offseason. While ownership has the financial muscle to spend on the free agent market, Cleveland’s Opening Day 2011 payroll will likely be south of $50 million.
By that standard, the $13 million we owe Pronk will make up more than a quarter of the Tribe’s payroll—maybe more like a third, depending on just how low the budget sinks. That money could be used to sign someone like Adam Dunn or Adrian Beltre, or even a couple lower-tier free agents like Brandon Webb or Magglio Ordonez.
The bottom line is that the Yankees won’t think twice about pursuing other top-tier free agents while shelling out as much as it takes to keep Jeter, but the Indians’ entire offseason agenda is restricted by a bad deal we made three years ago. If that’s not a huge advantage, I don’t know what is.
Derek Jeter Fiasco Getting Crazier: Yankees Captain Demands $25MM a Year
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Making its way around the interwebs today is the New York Daily News’ Bill Madden’s report that the’ three-year, $45 million contract the Yankees have offered their captain and longtime shortstop, Derek Jeter, is less than a third of what he thinks he deserves.
Jeter is reportedly using six years and $150 million as a starting point for his new contract. He and his agent, Casey Close, “aren’t budging on $25 million per year”—demonstrating that Jeter is perhaps the most self-deluded player in all of baseball.
Jeter, who turns 37 next season, is coming off the worst year of his career. He hit .270 with 10 homers and a .710 OPS—not bad for a shortstop, but at 2.5 WAR, he’s closer to Yuniesky Betancourt than Troy Tulowitzki.
But let’s pretend that Jeter is completely immune to the aging process and 2010 was just an inexplicable down year. Using a 5-4-3 weight for his last three seasons, you’re looking at a guy who’s worth 4.2 WAR per 600 plate appearances. That’s good, but it’s not great, and it’s not worth anywhere near deserving of a $25 million salary.
But, of course, Jeter is getting older, and his proposed deal would make him the highest-paid player in the game when he’s 42. His speed will disappear and what’s left of his power will dry up, and his already-awful range will get so bad that even Yankees fans will admit it—but he would still be making $25 million.
But I digress. Hats off to Derek Jeter—a true class act.
Dishonorable Mentions: The 2010 Cleveland Indians Anti-Awards
In honor of Thanksgiving, I’ve tried to devote this week to things that should cheer up the Indians’ depressed fanbase. I’ve honored an underappreciated pitcher, given Tribe fans a list of things to be thankful for, and handed out end-of-season awards to Cleveland’s best players.
But when dealing with the Tribe, it’s hard to maintain such cheery optimism. I now present the product of my pent-up pessimism: the 2010 Cleveland Indians anti-awards.
Least Valuable Player: Luis Valbuena
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There is no way to adequately describe how bad Valbuena was in 2010.
In 91 games with the Indians, he hit .193 with a .531 OPS while providing abysmal defense all over the infield. All told, he was worth -1.5 WAR in just over half a season’s worth of games, meaning the Indians would have won 1.5 more games if they had given Valbuena’s playing time to an average Triple-A player.
Cy Old: David Huff
[picappgallerysingle id="8471340"]After bursting onto the scene with a 5.61 ERA in 23 starts last year, Huff somehow got even worse in 2010, posting a nauseating 6.21 ERA with a mediocre 4.2 K/9 rate and an unimpressive 3.8 BB/9 rate in 15 starts.
Win-and-loss records may be bad ways to measure pitching, but you don’t go 2-11 without sucking.
Bookie of the Year: Michael Brantley
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It’s way too soon to give up on Brantley, but that doesn’t mean we have to completely forget the terrible .623 OPS and -0.7 WAR he posted this season.
Moldy Gloves: Michael Brantley, Jordan Brown, Trevor Crowe, Jason Donald, Andy Marte, Jhonny Peralta, Luis Valbuena
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The Indians ranked last in the league in UZR (-59.8) in 2010, and it’s not hard to see why. Crowe, Brantley, and Brown displayed awful range in the outfield; Donald, Marte, and Valbuena were miserable around the infield; and Jhonny Peralta was his usual self at the hot corner.
Pilfer Sluggers: Michael Brantley, Asdrubal Cabrera, Trevor Crowe, Lou Marson, Andy Marte, Matt LaPorta, Jhonny Peralta, Grady Sizemore, Luis Valbuena
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Of the players listed here, only Cabrera had an average over .251 or an OBP above .308 with the Indians. No one topped 12 homers or 43 RBIs, and every single one posted an OPS south of .700.
Come-Back-Then-Go-Away Player of the Year: Grady Sizemore
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After a disappointing 2009 campaign, Sizemore responded to doubts about his ability to come back by hitting .211 with no homers and a .560 OPS in 33 games before being shut down for the year. In less than two years, he’s gone from one of the best players in baseball to one of the most useless players in the league.
Worst Manager of the Year: Eric Wedge
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Who cares if he’s not here anymore?
Ten Things Major League Baseball Fans Should Be Thankful For
Yesterday, I gave Cleveland Indians fans some help in celebrating Thanksgiving by coming up with a list of 10 things Tribe fans should be thankful for for which Tribe fans should be grateful.
But believe it or not, Clevelanders aren’t the only people who have something to be happy about this Thanksgiving. Here is my list of 10 things all—or at least, most—baseball fans can celebrate before stuffing their faces with the flesh of dead birds.
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1. The decline of PEDs. Doping is still a problem in baseball and the record books are already tainted, but right now the game is cleaner than it’s been in years.
2. The rise of sabermetrics. You won’t hear the radio announcers talking about wOBA and WAR, but even the word “sabermetric” appearing in an MLB.com article is progress. And if The Simpsons can do a whole episode about it, it’s gotta be mainstream, right?
3. The expanded postseason. Yes, Selig’s proposed plan would cheapen the playoffs and lengthen a postseason that some people think is already too long. But does that mean you won’t cheer for your boys if they make the playoffs because of the second Wild Card spot?
4. Stephen Strasburg. I have never seen fans so excited to watch their team lose than when Strasburg came to Cleveland to face the Indians in his second career start. Even if he never comes back from Tommy John surgery—many inferior pitchers have had successful careers after the procedure—he has already cemented himself as the most exciting player in recent memory.
5. The 2010 rookie class. Strasburg, Posey, Heyward, Santana, Stanton, Feliz, Jackson, Garcia, Valencia, Davis (Ike and Wade), Sanchez, Bumgarner, Venters—need I say more? This year’s rookie class will be wowing us for years to come.
6. The Winter Meetings. For four days in December, all of the game’s biggest movers and shakers will be in one place. There will be wheeling, dealing, and enough rumors to make your head spin.
7. The Yankees aren’t invincible. A-Rod, Jeter, and Teixeira had down years. Cliff Lee might not sign with them even though no other team can match their money. And New York was upset in the ALCS by a team built on homegrown talent and thriftily acquired spare parts.
8. Baseball players are relatively sane. Not everyone who plays our national pastime is like Russ Ohlendorf, but even Manny Ramirez wouldn’t be crazy enough to be part of a dogfighting ring or hold a loaded gun in the waistband of his sweatpants.
9. Baseball! Without it, we fans would have nothing in common (and a lot more free time).
10. No games on Thanksgiving. You don’t have to miss any MLB action while you sit down with your family tonight—or vice versa.
